Is NZ the Switzerland of the South Pacific?
“Can NZ be the Switzerland of the South Pacific?”
This question embodies a common sentiment in this country. In light of recent events like the formal signing of the Ocean of Peace Alliance between Australia and Fiji (Fiji's first ever formal military alliance) and China's peevish response to this news coming in the form of a long-range test missile fired into South Pacific waters, where NZ stands regarding China now matters more than ever.
Before we all rush off to yodel and make fondue it is worth heeding the warning of the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu who argued that preparation is the greatest strategic deterrent to war.
Too many in NZ hold to a naively charitable view of human nature regarding China's authoritarian regime. To assume the best of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party defies extensive historical warnings about tyrants and the dynamics which typically shape great power rivalries. It also assumes a small nation's peace-loving posture will win universal admiration from democrats and despots alike.
The use of defence measures should always be a last-resort, but they must actually exist, even if just in reserve, if they are to be a contingency. Good diplomacy can and ought to be the most versatile tool in the national tool kit. Dialogue certainly goes a long way toward peace as a means of de-escalation. But words, while powerful, unfortunately count for a lot less in an environment contested by great powers.
This is the new reality of the world we live in.
Or am I just war-mongering? Certain Kiwi business leaders seem to think so. They've told me China isn't the problem and we shouldn't upset Beijing by bringing up small matters like the erosion of Hong Kong's democracy, the tens of millions of China's own subjects facing human rights abuses at the hands of the CCP, the astronomical growth of China's armed forces in the past two decades, and Beijing's blatant multi-modal campaign to undermine Taiwan's vibrant democracy. Maybe we should just block our ears to the sound of the People's Liberation Army shooting nuclear-capable test missiles into the South Pacific and hope our tone-deaf rendition of "Kumbaya" can drown it all out.
Those of us who are more sympathetic toward the USA, its political ideals and legal customs, don't need to pretend our American friends are perfect. Their choices will not always be right, but on balance the western democratic heritage we share is a powerful unifier, the kind of moral common ground on which to appeal to conscience and a basis for cooperation. Those philosophical roots and shared experiences are a direct affront to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which actively works to suffocate individual liberties. If the people of China ever throw off the CCP's stranglehold in favour of truly representative government, we could then hope for peace. Until that time we must never drop our guard.
Australia is currently our only ally. Either we become more proactive in our defence preparations and relationships. Or we end our dependence on the Australians. Fiji is one of our closest friends and partners. It is the hub of the South Pacific. They have shown with the new alliance that they do not trust China despite all its economic offerings.
I don't deny the Swiss have had it good - great scenery, good chocolate, and free from invasion for 200 years. What many don't realise, however, is that Hitler, while tolerant of Swiss neutrality initially, planned to absorb the small alpine nation just as soon as he was finished defeating Allied Forces. So the truth is that it wasn't the hard work of the Swiss that kept Switzerland free from war. That credit goes to those countries who understood Sun Tzu's warning, rolled their sleeves up and refused to endure totalitarianism.
Canberra has tolerated our complaisance thus far because it has only just begun itself playing catch up on matters of national and regional defence. But by styling ourselves as Switzerland while still relying on our friends to do the heavy lifting, NZ will become the soft underbelly of the South Pacific and more of a target for China's interference rather than less. If there is one Chinese voice we cannot afford to ignore right now, it is Sun Tzu's.
