What’s worse than no oil?

Not to be alarmist, but it's taken a while for a lot of Kiwis to recognise the name of the creek we presently find ourselves up. 

And the only paddle we have is slipping through our fingers. 

Up to this point in the crisis we've shown admirable composure as a nation with only a few exceptions who've put me in mind of the highly excitable character Lance Corporal Jones from the old British TV show Dad's Army who would predictably run around every episode shouting "Don't panic! Don't panic!"

No doubt panic is the worst thing we could do. Our online fuel clocks suggest we're not going to run out tomorrow at least. But that misses the bigger point. A clear-eyed appraisal of not only NZ's fuel supply chain, but the broader geopolitical situation has been lacking here for decades. And the longer we put off this strategic risk assessment, the more acute our vulnerabilities as a nation become.

Few in this country at a government or corporate level are readying Kiwis for what will happen when - not if - a crisis emerges in the Taiwan Straits. Granted, I imagine there may be a set of plans on A3 paper collecting dust in the back room of Civil Defence or Treasury. But how detailed is it? Is it current? How many people have even read it? Is there a process outlined by which it would be communicated clearly to the public? Based on what we've witnessed this past month the answer we can reasonably infer is...ahem....no.

And let's be clear. Even if people were reading up on the plan, it is more than likely reliant on the assumption NZ would only have to deal with one geopolitical crisis at a time. Isn't in curious how given the unrelenting weather events NZ experiences, we don't have to be told that when it rains it pours. Yet apparently geopolitical events that might affect us only occur one at a time. So many in our media and political class would have us believe that all would be sunny around the world if only it weren't for a certain bombastic rainmaker who lives in the White House. 

Love him or hate him, Trump - believe it or not - is occupying too much of our focus. Of course we have to pay attention to what he does. It would be impossible not to. But the object of his attention, the thing he's raging at should not be ignored.

Authoritarian powers China and Russia and their lieutenant allies are vying for control of territory, economies, and political and educational institutions with increasingly coercive, ruthless and clandestine tactics. 

For all the seeming hyperbole, Trump hasn't actually conjured out of thin air a host of new dangers for the West. Every US administration of the past 30 years has acknowledged the existence of the very same threats. And so too, but very quietly, have other western governments. Trump is just far louder, brasher and more disruptive in how he's responding. Could his methods backfire? It's entirely possible. But even some of his greatest detractors admit inaction toward these threats at this point will be far worse for us all.

For NZ there's a strong temptation to treat the evolving geopolitical situation purely as a game of odds in which we do whatever we think is necessary to increase our chances of survival. Do we take sides? Or act like Switzerland? Do we imagine no harm can reach us across our ocean moat like pre-WW2 France did hiding smugly behind its Maginot line?

The trouble is that a survivor mentality isn't what secures and rejuvenates liberal democracy. Fear can be instructive, but it doesn't fuel a healthy democracy, a meaningful life, and a positive legacy for our children. 

Our economy, way of life and standard of living are almost certainly about to take a serious hit. But rather than barging our way to the lifeboats in the search for security, we need more than anything (even oil) to establish some moral clarity. Because the one thing we cannot afford to weaken are fundamentals which inform our political system. Liberal democratic values depend on individuals being resilient, brave and even willing to suffer for the good of others. 

That is one of the reasons why Easter matters so much to me.

Nothing secures life and freedom so much as the willingness to lose it for the sake of others.

Our political forebears knew that this very thing was the good oil on which a democratic society depended. 

Yesterday was Good Friday, named as such in anticipation of the life that came out of loss. If we pay heed to that example, an abundance of diesel or not, NZ can be bigger than the challenges heading our way down the geopolitical pipeline.